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Peterson Institute for International Economics

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Derniers articles

  • There Is No Inflation Puzzle

    17 novembre 2017, par Joseph E. Gagnon
    Some economists are puzzled over why US inflation has remained low while the economy has reached, or even exceeded, potential employment. Commentators have argued that central banks are wrong to place too much faith in the Phillips curve model, in which inflation responds to deviations (...)
  • Withdrawing from NAFTA Would Hit 187,000 US Exporting Jobs, Mostly in Heartland

    16 novembre 2017, par Sherman Robinson, Egor Gornostay, Monica de Bolle, Junie Joseph, Melina Kolb
    An analysis of US jobs that rely on exports to Canada and Mexico finds that withdrawing from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) would cost 187,000 of those jobs over a 1 to 3 year period. [1] (By comparison, from 2013 to 2015, a total of 7.4 million US workers were displaced, or (...)
  • Trade Talks Episode 12 : How to Save a (Pacific) Trade Deal

    16 novembre 2017, par Chad P. Bown, Soumaya Keynes
  • Bruce Klingner moderates Daniel Blumenthal, Julian Ku, and Steph Haggard on North Korea

    15 novembre 2017, par Stephan Haggard
    I had the pleasure to participate in a Federalist Society podcast on the Korean peninsula on Monday. Of particular interest to me were some of the legal discussions on the authority the US president may or may not have to initiate an attack on North Korea, a topic I took up here . Ku argued (...)
  • Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis ?

    15 novembre 2017, par Olivier Blanchard
    Fifty years ago, Milton Friedman articulated the natural rate hypothesis. It was composed of two sub-hypotheses: First, the natural rate of unemployment is independent of monetary policy. Second, there is no long-run tradeoff between the deviation of unemployment from the natural rate and (...)
  • Adam Posen Discusses APEC with CGTN

    15 novembre 2017, par Adam S. Posen
    Adam S. Posen says that the Trump administration’s message at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO meeting held on November 10, 2017, will leave the United States afraid and alone. Posen spoke with China Global Television Network (...)
  • Adam Posen on Trump and Xi’s Competing Visions for Globalization

    15 novembre 2017, par Adam S. Posen
    Adam S. Posen says that the Trump administration’s message at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO meeting held on November 10, 2017, will leave the United States afraid and alone. Posen spoke with China Global Television Network (...)
  • A New Index of External Debt Sustainability

    14 novembre 2017, par Olivier Blanchard
    Debt sustainability is fundamentally a probabilistic concept: Debt is rarely sustainable with probability one. Blanchard and Das propose an index of external debt sustainability that reflects this uncertainty. They construct the index as the probability that, at the current exchange rate, (...)
  • The Brexit Process : A Hard Exit vs. No Exit at All ?

    14 novembre 2017, par Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
    The increasingly fraught talks over Brexit between the European Union and UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s battered government have reached a critical fork in the road. The most likely course is for Britain to capitulate to most of the EU-27 demands, leading to a hard British exit postponed by a (...)
  • David Hawk’s "The Parallel Gulag"

    14 novembre 2017, par Stephan Haggard
    David Hawk's 2003 The Hidden Gulag was a landmark in the study of North Korean human rights, which made a forceful appearance in President Trump's speech before the Korean National Assembly . Drawing on a combination of satellite imagery and defector and prison guard testimony, Hawk (...)

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